Cost-effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination: A systematic review.

OBJECTIVE: The COVID-19 vaccination strategy has been widely used to protect population health worldwide. This study aims to summarize the cost-effectiveness evidence of economic evaluation of COVID-19 vaccination strategies to provide evidence supporting the usage of COVID-19 vaccination, especially where the supply of COVID-19 vaccine is limited. METHODS: A systematic literature review was performed by searching both English and Chinese databases, including PubMed, Embase, Science Direct, Web of Science, Medline, Scopus, and CNKI. Articles published from January 1, 2020 to August 1, 2022 (PROSPERO registration number: CRD42022355442). RESULTS: Of the 1035 papers identified, a total of 28 English studies that met the preset criteria were included. COVID-19 vaccination and booster vaccination were cost-effective or cost-saving regardless of the vaccine type; vaccine efficacy, vaccine price, vaccine supply or prioritization, and vaccination pace were the influential factors of cost-effectiveness among different population groups. When supply is adequate, mass vaccination should be encouraged, while when supply is inadequate, prioritizing the high risk and the elderly is more cost-effective. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 vaccination strategies are economically favorable in a wide range of countries and population groups, and further research on suitable strategies for booster COVID-19 vaccination is needed.

Effectiveness and Cost-Effectiveness of Inactivated Vaccine to Address COVID-19 Pandemic in China: Evidence From Randomized Control Trials and Real-World Studies.

Objective: This study aimed to determine the efficacy, effectiveness, and cost-effectiveness of inactivated COVID-19 vaccines (CoronaVac and BBIBP-CorV) in China using existing international clinical trials and real-world evidence. Methods: Through a search of PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and CNKI, studies investigating the effectiveness of inactivated COVID-19 vaccines were identified, and a meta-analysis was undertaken to synthesize the vaccine efficacy and effectiveness data. Moreover, a decision-analytic model was developed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of inactivated vaccines for combating the COVID-19 pandemic in the Chinese context from a societal perspective. Results of the meta-analysis, along with cost data from official websites and works of literature were used to populate the model. Sensitivity analysis was performed to test the robustness of the model results. Results: A total of 24 studies were included in the meta-analysis. In comparison to no immunization, the effectiveness of inactivated vaccine against COVID-19 infection, hospitalization, ICU admission and death were 65.18% (95% CI 62.62, 67.75), 79.10% (95% CI 71.69, 86.51), 90.46% (95% CI 89.42, 91.50), and 86.69% (95% CI 85.68, 87.70); and the efficacy against COVID-19 infection and hospitalization were 70.56% (95% CI 57.87, 83.24) and 100% (95% CI 61.72, 100). Inactivated vaccine vaccination prevented more infections, hospitalizations, ICU admissions, and deaths with lower total costs, thus was cost-saving from a societal perspective in China. Base-case analysis results were robust in the one-way sensitivity analysis, and the percentage of ICU admission or death and direct medical cost ranked the top influential factors in our models. In the probabilistic sensitivity analysis, vaccination had a 100% probability of being cost-effective. Conclusion: Inactivated vaccine is effective in preventing COVID-19 infection, hospitalization, ICU admission and avoiding COVID-19 related death, and COVID-19 vaccination program is cost-saving from societal perspective in China.

Cost-Effectiveness of COVID-19 Sequential Vaccination Strategies in Inactivated Vaccinated Individuals in China.

To effectively prevent and control the COVID-19 pandemic, countries have adopted a booster vaccination strategy. This study aimed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of sequential booster COVID-19 vaccination compared to two-dose inactivated vaccination in China from a societal perspective. A Markov model was developed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of sequential vaccination, including two doses of an inactivated vaccine followed by a booster shot of an inactivated vaccine, adenovirus vectored vaccine, protein subunit vaccine, or mRNA vaccine. The incremental effects of a booster shot with an inactivated vaccine, protein subunit vaccine, adenovirus vectored vaccine, and mRNA vaccine were 0.0075, 0.0110, 0.0208, and 0.0249 QALYs and saved costs of US$163.96, US$261.73, US$583.21, and US$724.49, respectively. Under the Omicron virus pandemic, the sequential vaccination among adults and the elderly (aged 60-69, 70-79, over 80) was consistently cost-saving, and a booster shot of the mRNA vaccine was more cost-saving. The results indicate that the sequential vaccination strategy is cost-effective in addressing the COVID-19 pandemic, and improving vaccination coverage among the elderly is of great importance in avoiding severe cases and deaths.

Effectiveness and Cost-Effectiveness of Inactivated Vaccine to Address COVID-19 Pandemic in China: Evidence From Randomized Control Trials and Real-World Studies

Objective This study aimed to determine the efficacy, effectiveness, and cost-effectiveness of inactivated COVID-19 vaccines (CoronaVac and BBIBP-CorV) in China using existing international clinical trials and real-world evidence. Methods Through a search of PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and CNKI, studies investigating the effectiveness of inactivated COVID-19 vaccines were identified, and a meta-analysis was undertaken to synthesize the vaccine efficacy and effectiveness data. Moreover, a decision-analytic model was developed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of inactivated vaccines for combating the COVID-19 pandemic in the Chinese context from a societal perspective. Results of the meta-analysis, along with cost data from official websites and works of literature were used to populate the model. Sensitivity analysis was performed to test the robustness of the model results. Results A total of 24 studies were included in the meta-analysis. In comparison to no immunization, the effectiveness of inactivated vaccine against COVID-19 infection, hospitalization, ICU admission and death were 65.18% (95% CI 62.62, 67.75), 79.10% (95% CI 71.69, 86.51), 90.46% (95% CI 89.42, 91.50), and 86.69% (95% CI 85.68, 87.70);and the efficacy against COVID-19 infection and hospitalization were 70.56% (95% CI 57.87, 83.24) and 100% (95% CI 61.72, 100). Inactivated vaccine vaccination prevented more infections, hospitalizations, ICU admissions, and deaths with lower total costs, thus was cost-saving from a societal perspective in China. Base-case analysis results were robust in the one-way sensitivity analysis, and the percentage of ICU admission or death and direct medical cost ranked the top influential factors in our models. In the probabilistic sensitivity analysis, vaccination had a 100% probability of being cost-effective. Conclusion Inactivated vaccine is effective in preventing COVID-19 infection, hospitalization, ICU admission and avoiding COVID-19 related death, and COVID-19 vaccination program is cost-saving from societal perspective in China.

Development of China's health care system in the time of COVID-19: Challenges, opportunities, and call for actions

The practice and development of China's health care has provided valuable practical experience for global health care, especially the formation of the concepts of ?primary health care? and ?health promotion?. Primary health care and the philosophy of the patriotic health campaign continue to play an active role in the response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

[Progress in research of economic evaluation of non-pharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19 prevention and control].

Objective: To understand the research progresses of economic evaluation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) both at home and abroad, and provide reference for economic evaluation of NPIs using real-world data in China. Methods: The literature retrieval was conducted by searching Chinese and English databases to indude papers about economic evaluation of NPIs and integrated NPIs published from January, 2020 to December, 2021, and the results were analyzed comprehensively. Results: A total of 30 Chinese and English literatures about economic evaluation of NPIs for COVID-19 prevention and control were included; including 7 papers about nucleic acid and testing and screening, 6 papers about individual prevention and protection measures, 12 papers about integrated implementation of individual prevention and protection, social distancing, nucleic acid or antigen testing, community screening and symptom screening, as well as close contact tracing and isolation/quarantine, and 5 papers about contain strategies, such as lockdown. This study found that personal protection, social distancing, and testing-tracing-isolation measures were cost-effective; however, different combinations of NPIs might lead to different results. Moreover, the cost of lockdown was high, which might cause huge economic burden. Conclusions: Most NPIs are cost-effective except lockdown, while the cost-effectiveness of the integrations of NPIs at different levels and in different scenarios needs to be further evaluated. It is necessary to carry out economic evaluation of integrated NPIs and the combination of NPIs with other interventions, such as vaccination and medication, based on real-world settings in China.

Evaluation of Immunogenicity and Safety of Vero Cell-Derived Inactivated COVID-19 Vaccine in Older Patients with Hypertension and Diabetes Mellitus.

BACKGROUND: To evaluate the immunogenicity and safety of the COVID-19 vaccine (Vero cell), inactivated, in a population aged ≥60 years with hypertension or(/and) diabetes mellitus. METHODS: A total of 1440 participants were enrolled and divided into four groups, 330 in the hypertension group, 330 in the diabetes group, 300 in the hypertensive combined with diabetes group (combined disease group), and 480 in the healthy population group. Two doses of the COVID-19 vaccine (Vero cell), inactivated, were administered at a 21-day interval and blood samples were collected before vaccination and 28 days after the second dose to evaluate the immunogenicity. The adverse events and changes in blood pressure and blood glucose levels after vaccination were recorded. RESULTS: The seroconversion rate of the COVID-19 neutralizing antibodies was 100% for all participants. The post-inoculation geometric mean titer (GMT) in the four groups of the hypertension, diabetes, combined disease, and healthy populations were 73.41, 69.93, 73.84, and 74.86, respectively. The seroconversion rates and post-vaccination GMT in the hypertension, diabetes, and combined disease groups were non-inferior to the healthy population group. The rates of vaccine-related adverse reactions were 11.93%, 14.29%, 12.50%, and 9.38%, respectively. No serious adverse events were reported during the study. No apparent abnormal fluctuations in blood pressure and blood glucose values were observed after vaccination in participants with hypertension or(/and) diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 vaccine (Vero cell), inactivated, showed good immunogenicity and safety in patients aged ≥60 years suffering from hypertension or(/and) diabetes mellitus.

Asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic infection in Coronavirus Disease 2019 pandemic.

With the presence of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) asymptomatic infections detected, their proportion, transmission potential, and other aspects such as immunity and related emerging challenges have attracted people's attention. We have found that based on high-quality research, asymptomatic infections account for at least one-third of the total cases, whereas based on systematic review and meta-analysis, the proportion is about one-fifth. Evaluating the true transmission potential of asymptomatic cases is difficult but critical, since it may affect national policies in response to COVID-19. We have summarized the current evidence and found, compared with symptomatic cases, the transmission capacity of asymptomatic individuals is weaker, even though they have similar viral load and relatively short virus shedding duration. As the outbreak progresses, asymptomatic infections have also been found to develop long COVID-19. In addition, the role of asymptomatic infection in COVID-19 remains to be further revealed as the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants continue to emerge. Nevertheless, as asymptomatic infections transmit the SARS-CoV-2 virus silently, they still pose a substantial threat to public health. Therefore, it is essential to conduct screening to obtain more knowledge about the asymptomatic infections and to detect them as soon as possible; meanwhile, management of them is also a key point in the fight against COVID-19 community transmission. The different management of asymptomatic infections in various countries are compared and the experience in China is displayed in detail.

Solid fuel use, socioeconomic indicators and risk of cardiovascular diseases and all-cause mortality: a prospective cohort study in a rural area of Sichuan, China.

BACKGROUND: Estimates indicate that household air pollution caused by solid fuel burning accounted for about 1.03 million premature mortalities in China in 2016. In the country's rural areas, more than half the population still relies on biomass fuels and coals for cooking and heating. Understanding the health impact of indoor air pollution and socioeconomic indicators is essential for the country to improve its developmental targets. We aimed to describe demographic and socioeconomic characteristics associated with solid fuel users in a rural area in China. We also estimated the risk of cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality in association with solid fuel use and described the relationship between solid fuel use, socioeconomic status and mortality. We also measured the risk of long-term use, and the effect of ameliorative action, on mortality caused by cardiovascular disease and other causes. METHODS: We used the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB) site in Pengzhou, Sichuan, China. We followed a cohort of 55 687 people over 2004-13. We calculated the mean and standard deviation among subgroups classified by fuel use types: gas, coal, wood and electricity (central heating additionally for heating). We tested the mediation effect using the stepwise method and Sobel test. We used Cox proportional models to estimate the risk of incidences of cardiovascular disease and mortality with survival days as the time scale, adjusted for age, gender, socioeconomic status, physical measurements, lifestyle, stove ventilation and fuel type used for other purposes. The survival days were defined as the follow-up days from the baseline survey till the date of death or 31 December 2013 if right-censored. We also calculated the absolute mortality rate difference (ARD) between the exposure group and the reference group. RESULTS: The study population had an average age of 51.0, and 61.9% of the individuals were female; 64.8% participants (n = 35 543) cooked regularly and 25.4% participants (n = 13 921) needed winter heating. With clean fuel users as the reference group, participant households that used solid fuel for cooking or heating both had a higher risk of all-cause mortality: hazard ratio (HR) for: cooking, 1.11 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.02, 1.26]; heating, 1.34 (95% CI 1.16, 1.54). Solid fuel used for winter heating was associated with a higher risk of mortality caused by cerebrovascular disease: HR 1.64 (95% CI 1.12, 2.40); stroke: HR 1.70 (95% CI 1.13, 2.56); and cardiovascular disease: HR 1.49 (95% CI 1.10, 2.02). Low income and poor education level had a significant correlation with solid fuel used for cooking: odds ratio (OR) for income: 2.27 (95% CI 2.14, 2.41); education: 2.34 (95% CI 2.18, 2.53); and for heating: income: 2.69 (95% CI 2.46, 2.97); education: 2.05 (95% CI 1.88, 2.26), which may be potential mediators bridging the effects of socioeconomic status factors on cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality. Solid fuel used for cooking and heating accounted for 42.4% and 81.1% of the effect of poor education and 55.2% and 76.0% of the effect of low income on all-cause mortality, respectively. The risk of all-cause mortality could be ameliorated by stopping regularly cooking and heating using solid fuel or switching from solid fuel to clean fuels: HR for cooking: 0.90 (95% CI 0.84, 0.96); heating: 0.76 (95% CI 0.64, 0.92). CONCLUSIONS: Our study reinforces the evidence of an association between solid fuel use and risk of cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality. We also assessed the effect of socioeconomic status as the potential mediator on mortality. As solid fuel use was a major contributor in the effect of socioeconomic status on cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality, policies to improve access to clean fuels could reduce morbidity and mortality related to poor education and low income.

[Progress in research of economic evaluation of COVID-19 vaccination strategies].

Objective: To understand the research progresses of economic evaluation of COVID-19 vaccination strategies both at home and abroad, and provide reference for the economic evaluation of COVID-19 vaccination strategies using real word data in China. Methods: Literature retrieval was conducted for related papers published from January, 2020 to December, 2021 in Chinese and English databases, including the economic evaluation of COVID-19 vaccination, and the results of the related literatures were narratively integrated. Results: A total of 16 English literatures (including 3 reviews) were included, and it was found that the COVID-19 vaccination was cost-effective or cost-saving regardless of the vaccine types, while the cost-effectiveness in different population and under different vaccination dose strategies varied due to vaccine efficacy, vaccine price, duration of natural immunity, duration of vaccination campaign, vaccine supply, and vaccination pace. Conclusions: China lacks suitable evidences of economic evaluation of COVID-19 vaccination strategies based on real-world data in the context of long-term epidemic. Therefore, further researches of suitable strategies of booster COVID-19 vaccination are needed.

Association between blood pressure categories and cardiovascular disease mortality in China.

BACKGROUND: Blood pressure (BP) categories are useful to simplify preventions in public health, and diagnostic and treatment approaches in clinical practice. Updated evidence about the associations of BP categories with cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) and its subtypes is warranted. METHODS AND FINDINGS: About 0.5 million adults aged 30 to 79 years were recruited from 10 areas in China during 2004-2008. The present study included 430 977 participants without antihypertension treatment, cancer, or CVD at baseline. BP was measured at least twice in a single visit at baseline and CVD deaths during follow-up were collected via registries and the national health insurance databases. Multivariable Cox regression was used to estimate the associations between BP categories and CVD mortality. Overall, 16.3% had prehypertension-low, 25.1% had prehypertension-high, 14.1% had isolated systolic hypertension (ISH), 1.9% had isolated diastolic hypertension (IDH), and 9.1% had systolic-diastolic hypertension (SDH). During a median 10-year follow-up, 9660 CVD deaths were documented. Compared with normal, the hazard ratios (95% CI) of prehypertension-low, prehypertension-high, ISH, IDH, SDH for CVD were 1.10 (1.01-1.19), 1.32 (1.23-1.42), 2.04 (1.91-2.19), 2.20 (1.85-2.61), and 3.81 (3.54-4.09), respectively. All hypertension subtypes were related to the increased risk of CVD subtypes, with a stronger association for hemorrhagic stroke than for ischemic heart disease. The associations were stronger in younger than older adults. CONCLUSIONS: Prehypertension-high should be considered in CVD primary prevention given its high prevalence and increased CVD risk. All hypertension subtypes were independently associated with CVD and its subtypes mortality, though the strength of associations varied substantially.

US-China health exchange and collaboration following COVID-19.

Strong US-China collaboration on health and medicine is a crucial element of the global effort against COVID-19. We review the history of health collaboration and exchanges between the public and private sectors in the USA and China, including the long-lasting collaboration between governmental public health agencies of the two countries. Academic and scientific exchanges should be reinvigorated and the increasing valuable role of non-profit foundations acknowledged. The shared interests of the two countries and the magnitude of the pandemic necessitate both countries to collaborate and cooperate. We provide recommendations to the two governments and the global health community to control the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and prepare for future threats. TRANSLATION: For the Chinese translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Antibody seroprevalence in the epicenter Wuhan, Hubei, and six selected provinces after containment of the first epidemic wave of COVID-19 in China.

BACKGROUND: China implemented containment measures to stop SARS-CoV-2 transmission in response to the COVID-19 epidemic. After the first epidemic wave, we conducted population-based serological surveys to determine extent of infection, risk factors for infection, and neutralization antibody levels to assess the real infections in the random sampled population. METHODS: We used a multistage, stratified cluster random sampling strategy to conduct serological surveys in three areas - Wuhan, Hubei Province outside Wuhan, and six provinces selected on COVID-19 incidence and containment strategy. Participants were consenting individuals >1 year old who resided in the survey area >14 days during the epidemic. Provinces screened sera for SARS-CoV-2-specific IgM, IgG, and total antibody by two lateral flow immunoassays and one magnetic chemiluminescence enzyme immunoassay; positive samples were verified by micro-neutralization assay. FINDINGS: We enrolled 34,857 participants (overall response rate, 92%); 427 were positive by micro-neutralization assay. Wuhan had the highest weighted seroprevalence (4•43%, 95% confidence interval [95%CI]=3•48%-5•62%), followed by Hubei-ex-Wuhan (0•44%, 95%CI=0•26%-0•76%), and the other provinces (<0•1%). Living in Wuhan (adjusted odds ratio aOR=13•70, 95%CI= 7•91-23•75), contact with COVID-19 patients (aOR=7•35, 95%CI=5•05-10•69), and age over 40 (aOR=1•36, 95%CI=1•07-1•72) were significantly associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection. Among seropositives, 101 (24%) reported symptoms and had higher geometric mean neutralizing antibody titers than among the 326 (76%) without symptoms (30±2•4 vs 15±2•1, p<0•001). INTERPRETATION: The low overall extent of infection and steep gradient of seropositivity from Wuhan to the outer provinces provide evidence supporting the success of containment of the first wave of COVID-19 in China. SARS-CoV-2 infection was largely asymptomatic, emphasizing the importance of active case finding and physical distancing. Virtually the entire population of China remains susceptible to SARS-CoV-2; vaccination will be needed for long-term protection. FUNDING: This study was supported by the Ministry of Science and Technology (2020YFC0846900) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (82041026, 82041027, 82041028, 82041029, 82041030, 82041032, 82041033).

Designing a Hybrid Biopharmaceutical Laboratory Course to Enhance Content Flexibility and Access

Herein we report the design of an upper-level hybrid laboratory course in the area of applied biopharmaceuticals, which has high scheduling flexibility, and utilizes both virtual and in-person educational elements to enhance students learning experience. This newly developed course applies chemical engineering knowledge, practical and theoretical, in the bioprocess and pharmaceutical industry, including crystallization, chromatography, and mass transport. During the COVID-19 pandemic, we transferred this lab course to a completely virtual mode during midsemester of Spring 2020. Despite the lack of in-person experiments during the second half of the semester, we introduced various additional elements including modeling, simulation, literature review, and added lectures to the virtual version of the course to improve students learning experience. These additional elements introduced during the virtual period enriched the course content and exposed students to more advanced applications of the knowledge in this course, which can be implemented in future hybrid modes. Although the student performance on quizzes and lab reports remained consistent after the transition to online format, the instructors noticed students struggling with data mined from previous groups. The root cause of this was not being able to create and observe their own data in real time, which could be improved by developing better remote data collection methods. Another lesson we learned during this experience is the value of keeping an experimental video archive for all of our laboratory modules, regardless of plans for remote learning.

Follow-up study of the pulmonary function and related physiological characteristics of COVID-19 survivors three months after recovery.

BACKGROUND: The long-term pulmonary function and related physiological characteristics of COVID-19 survivors have not been studied in depth, thus many aspects are not understood. METHODS: COVID-19 survivors were recruited for high resolution computed tomography (HRCT) of the thorax, lung function and serum levels of SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibody tests 3 months after discharge. The relationship between the clinical characteristics and the pulmonary function or CT scores were investigated. FINDINGS: Fifty-five recovered patients participated in this study. SARS-CoV-2 infection related symptoms were detected in 35 of them and different degrees of radiological abnormalities were detected in 39 patients. Urea nitrogen concentration at admission was associated with the presence of CT abnormalities (P = 0.046, OR 7.149, 95% CI 1.038 to 49.216). Lung function abnormalities were detected in 14 patients and the measurement of D-dimer levels at admission may be useful for prediction of impaired diffusion defect (P = 0.031, OR 1.066, 95% CI 1.006 to 1.129). Of all the subjects, 47 of 55 patients tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 IgG in serum, among which the generation of Immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibody in female patients was stronger than male patients in infection rehabilitation phase. INTERPRETATION: Radiological and physiological abnormalities were still found in a considerable proportion of COVID-19 survivors without critical cases 3 months after discharge. Higher level of D-dimer on admission could effectively predict impaired DLCO after 3 months discharge. It is necessary to follow up the COVID-19 patients to appropriately manage any persistent or emerging long-term sequelae. FUNDING: Key Scientific Research Projects of Henan Higher Education Institutions.

Quality of primary health care in China: challenges and recommendations.

China has substantially increased financial investment and introduced favourable policies for strengthening its primary health care system with core responsibilities in preventing and managing chronic diseases such as hypertension and emerging infectious diseases such as coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, widespread gaps in the quality of primary health care still exist. In this Review, we aim to identify the causes for this poor quality, and provide policy recommendations. System challenges include: the suboptimal education and training of primary health-care practitioners, a fee-for-service payment system that incentivises testing and treatments over prevention, fragmentation of clinical care and public health service, and insufficient continuity of care throughout the entire health-care system. The following recommendations merit consideration: (1) enhancement of the quality of training for primary health-care physicians, (2) establishment of performance accountability to incentivise high-quality and high-value care; (3) integration of clinical care with the basic public health services, and (4) strengthening of the coordination between primary health-care institutions and hospitals. Additionally, China should consider modernising its primary health-care system through the establishment of a learning health system built on digital data and innovative technologies.

Implementation of Clinical Diagnostic Criteria and Universal Symptom Survey Contributed to Lower Magnitude and Faster Resolution of the COVID-19 Epidemic in Wuhan.

The majority of cases infected with the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in China centered in the city of Wuhan. Despite a rapid increase in the number of cases and deaths due to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), the epidemic was stemmed via a combination of epidemic mitigation and control measures. This study evaluates how the implementation of clinical diagnostics and universal symptom surveys contributed to epidemic control in Wuhan. We extended the susceptibles-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR) transmission dynamics model by considering three quarantined compartments (SEIR+Q). The SEIR+Q dynamics model was fitted using the daily reported number of confirmed infections and unconfirmed cases by clinical diagnostic criteria up to February 14, 2020, in Wuhan. Applying the model to carry forward the pre-February 14 trend in Wuhan, the number of daily new diagnosed cases would be expected to drop below 100 by March 25, below 10 by April 29, and reach 0 by May 31, 2020. The observed case counts after February 14 demonstrated that the daily new cases fell below 100 by March 6, below 10 by March 11, and reached 0 by March 18, respectively, 19, 49, and 74 d earlier than model predictions. By March 30, the observed number of cumulative confirmed cases was 50 006, which was 19 951 cases fewer than the predicted count. Effective reproductive number R(t) analysis using observed frequencies showed a remarkable decline after the implementation of clinical diagnostic criteria and universal symptom surveys, which was significantly below the R(t) curve estimated by the model assuming that the pre-February 14 trend was carried forward. In conclusion, the proposed SEIR+Q dynamics model was a good fit for the epidemic data in Wuhan and explained the large increase in the number of infections during February 12-14, 2020. The implementation of clinical diagnostic criteria and universal symptom surveys contributed to a contraction in both the magnitude and the duration of the epidemic in Wuhan.